Netflix Chases YouTube, Meta's AI Photo Grab, and Disney Fights the FCC
with Matt Belloni
10 Jul 20264 min read~35m
TL;DR
The Paramount-Warner Brothers merger faces state antitrust lawsuits led by California AG Rob Bonta, but the real leverage is a court injunction — not the lawsuit itself — because Paramount owes $650M per quarter in ticking fees after October 1st. Netflix's push into short-form video with BuzzFeed and Condé Nast brands is YouTube envy dressed up as strategy, and Disney's new CEO Josh D'Amaro is aggressively fighting FCC chair Brendan Carr's probe of The View, a fight Disney is widely expected to win.
Key Moments
Matt Belloni
“I know there is a document that resides at Paramount that has all the things that they are willing to concede and it's just a question of how far down the menu they will go and what they actually ask for.”
Describing behind-the-scenes concession negotiations between Paramount and state attorneys general
“This is all just about Netflix having YouTube envy. They look at the engagement report every month from Neielson. They are getting their butts kicked by YouTube.”
Explaining why Netflix is partnering with BuzzFeed and Condé Nast for short-form content
Matt Belloni is a journalist and founding partner of Puck, where he covers Hollywood, media, and the entertainment industry. He hosts The Town podcast, one of the leading industry podcasts focused on the business of entertainment. Belloni is known for his sharp analysis of media mergers, streaming wars, and the intersection of politics and entertainment.
Takeaways
1
Injunction, not lawsuit, is states' real weapon Filing the antitrust lawsuit against the Paramount-Warner Brothers merger is largely performative. The actual leverage comes from persuading a court to enjoin the deal from closing, which triggers a $650M-per-quarter ticking fee Paramount owes after October 1st — making delay existentially expensive and forcing real concessions.
2
Paramount has a secret concession menu ready Belloni says a document exists at Paramount listing everything the Ellisons are willing to concede — commitments like 30 theatrical releases per year and content production quotas in California. The question is how far down the menu state AGs can push before the deal closes.
3
Netflix short-form bet is YouTube envy, not strategy Netflix's partnership with BuzzFeed and Condé Nast for short-form video is a reaction to Nielsen data showing YouTube crushing Netflix on engagement — time spent on Netflix grew less than 2% last year. Belloni is skeptical this works: Netflix is a premium paid product trying to replicate a free, user-generated platform's behavior.
4
Larry Ellison is the real fulcrum of this merger David Ellison has limited track record of moneymaking at Skydance, and the merged entity carries $80B in debt requiring massive synergies. Belloni draws a direct parallel to Larry's previous shutdown of daughter Megan Ellison's Annapurna Pictures after years of losses — suggesting his patience, not David's ambition, determines the deal's fate.
5
Disney's new CEO is picking fights Iger avoided Josh D'Amaro is aggressively fighting the FCC's probe of The View and pushing back on the Jimmy Kimmel/DEI episode — moves Bob Iger handled poorly or avoided. Belloni argues Disney has the legal upper hand and Brendan Carr knows it, making this a low-risk, high-optics win for a new CEO establishing his identity.
6
Cannes Lions is advertising theater, not creativity Belloni called Cannes Lions a 'soulless corporate boondoggle' in his newsletter, drawing a sharp contrast with the Cannes Film Festival which is actually about art. His critique: ad executives using the language of storytelling and creativity to sell programmatic ad tech is fundamentally dishonest about what the event actually is.