Meta’s Prediction Market App, Europe vs. Big Tech, and Hollywood’s Comeback
Kara Swisher & Scott Galloway
26 Jun 20264 min read1h 5m
TL;DR
Recorded live at Cannes Lions 2026, Kara and Scott dig into Meta's push into prediction markets, the creator economy's dominance over traditional advertising, and Europe's escalating effort to reduce dependency on U.S. tech giants. Hollywood's box office recovery and Instagram's TV ambitions signal a broader battle for premium video attention.
Key Moments
Scott Galloway
“Meta building a prediction market isn't just a product play — it's a data play. Every bet is a revealed preference, and Zuckerberg wants that signal feeding back into the ad machine.”
Scott explaining the strategic logic behind Meta's prediction market ambitions beyond the surface-level product announcement.
Kara Swisher
“Europe isn't just regulating — they're trying to build. The question is whether they can actually fund and scale alternatives, or whether this is just more performative sovereignty.”
Kara assessing whether Europe's anti-U.S.-tech posture will translate into genuine competitive alternatives.
Scott Galloway
“The creator economy has eaten the media business. Brands at Cannes aren't asking about reach anymore — they're asking which creators move product, full stop.”
Scott describing the shift in advertiser priorities he observed firsthand at Cannes Lions 2026.
Kara Swisher
“Instagram doing TV isn't a pivot — it's an inevitability. Once you have a billion people opening an app daily, you're going to try to keep them there for an hour, not thirty seconds.”
Kara contextualizing Instagram's long-form video push as a logical extension of its engagement strategy.
Scott Galloway
“The amount of money flowing into World Cup betting markets is staggering — we're talking about a legalized wealth transfer from young men to gambling platforms, and nobody wants to have that conversation.”
Scott raising a pointed concern about the scale and social cost of World Cup sports betting.
About the show
›
Pivot is a twice-weekly podcast hosted by Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, covering the intersection of technology, business, and politics. Kara is a veteran tech journalist and Scott is a professor of marketing at NYU Stern and serial entrepreneur. This episode was recorded live at ADWEEK House in Cannes, France.
Takeaways
1
Creator economy has displaced traditional media at Cannes Brand conversations at Cannes Lions 2026 have shifted from reach and GRPs to specific creator partnerships that demonstrably drive purchase. This reflects a structural reallocation of ad budgets away from legacy publishers and toward individual content creators. Agencies and brands that haven't built creator evaluation frameworks are already behind.
2
Meta's prediction market is a data acquisition strategy By entering prediction markets, Meta collects revealed-preference data — what users actually believe will happen — which is far more valuable for ad targeting than stated preferences. This extends Meta's behavioral data moat into a new domain. It's a product that pays for itself in signal, not just revenue.
3
Instagram's TV ambitions are an engagement-time land grab Instagram's push into long-form TV content is a direct attempt to capture the hour-plus daily sessions currently owned by Netflix and YouTube. With a billion-plus daily active users already in the app, the distribution problem is solved — the challenge is content quality and creator incentives. This puts Meta in direct competition with streaming platforms for premium video budgets.
4
World Cup betting volumes expose a growing social cost The 2026 World Cup is generating unprecedented legal sports betting volumes, concentrating financial losses among young male demographics. The platforms collecting this revenue face little regulatory scrutiny proportional to the scale of harm. For media and tech companies adjacent to sports, the ethical positioning around gambling partnerships is becoming a reputational risk.
5
Europe's tech sovereignty push needs capital, not just regulation Europe's regulatory aggression against U.S. tech is well-documented, but the harder challenge is funding and scaling homegrown alternatives. Without credible domestic platforms, regulation alone repositions European users toward non-U.S. giants like Chinese players rather than European ones. Sovereignty requires investment, not just enforcement.
6
Hollywood's box office recovery signals premium experience demand After years of streaming-driven decline, Hollywood's blockbuster comeback suggests audiences will pay for theatrical experiences that streaming cannot replicate. This vindicates studios that held back tentpole titles for theatrical windows and pressures streamers to reconsider day-and-date release strategies. The theatrical window is not dead — it's selective.