URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape
with Robert Pape
23 Jul 20265 min read38m
TL;DR
Iran is stronger today than before the US bombing campaign began on February 28th, because it seized control of the Strait of Hormuz within days and has held it ever since. Robert Pape argues the Trump administration's memorandum of understanding with Iran was effectively a roadmap to Iranian regional hegemony — and that Trump undermined it within 48 hours, restarting the war. With the Houthis now shutting down the Saudi bypass pipeline and US strategic reserves at their lowest since 1983, Pape puts the probability of a US ground operation in Iran at 70% by end of week.
Key Moments
Robert Pape
“It's bordering on 70% now, probably by the end of this week.”
Pape gives his probability estimate for a US limited ground operation with boots on the ground in Iran.
“Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started. And that's because it controls uh the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that it can threaten at will virtually any ship that goes through the Straight of Hormuz.”
Pape responds directly to the question of whether the US bombing campaign inadvertently strengthened Iran.
“If everything has been knocked out, then how come there's no safe passage through the Straight of Hermoose? How come this weekend we saw more Americans tragically die um because of Iranian attacks?”
Pape challenges Trump's May 2026 Truth Social claims that Iran's navy, air force, and radar had all been destroyed.
“These drones, they're they were making u 55,000 a year and giving them to Russia. So just think about that. That's thousands every single month. Why haven't they made uh another 5 or 10,000 drones since April?”
Pape explains why US estimates of Iran's destroyed drone capability are likely outdated and understated.
“The Houthies have just shut this down literally today. Oh, really? Literally before we came on, uh happened about 6 hours ago.”
Pape reveals breaking news mid-interview that the Houthis shut down the Saudi Arabian Red Sea bypass pipeline, cutting off the last major oil workaround.
Robert Pape is a political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago, best known for his research on suicide terrorism and the use of air power in international conflicts. He has modeled the bombing of Iran for over 20 years and has advised every White House from 2001 to 2024 on conflict-related issues. Pape is the author of several influential books on military strategy and the limits of coercive air campaigns.
Takeaways
1
Trump's MOU gave Iran a regional hegemony roadmap The memorandum of understanding Trump signed gave Iran permanent discretion over Hormuz fees (with only a 60-day free passage clause), locked in Lebanon's security arc, and gave Iran exclusive control over its unfrozen assets — exactly the 14-point plan Trump had publicly refused in April. Pape argues this was not a peace deal but a blueprint for Iranian dominance of the Persian Gulf.
2
US strategic oil reserve at 40-year low To offset the Hormuz closure, the US and 32 IEA nations collectively released 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. The US reserve has now dropped to roughly 300 million barrels — the lowest since 1983. With the Houthis now blocking the Saudi Red Sea bypass pipeline (4-5 million barrels/day), the buffer that prevented an immediate oil price crisis is nearly exhausted.
3
Iran seized Hormuz within days of bombing When the US began its regime-change bombing campaign on February 28th, Iran moved swiftly to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz within days — something the US had no naval presence to counter. This transformed Iran from a declining regional power into the gatekeeper of 20% of the world's oil supply, a position it has held for five months.
4
War restarted because Trump violated MOU in 48 hours Within two days of signing, the Trump administration began undermining the agreement: Rubio locked Israel into Lebanon via a framework accord (violating Article 1), ships ran Hormuz with transponders off and no Iranian coordination (violating Article 5), and Trump told Iran to spend its unfrozen assets on US grain (violating Article 11). Iran responded by firing on ships, restarting the war.
5
Drone threat impossible to eliminate at scale Iran was producing 55,000 Shahed drones per year for Russia alone before the war. Distributed across a mountainous 500-mile radius (1.5x the size of California), these drones are nearly impossible to find from the air. Destroying a large fraction still leaves thousands capable of saturation attacks that overwhelm US interceptor supplies.
6
Controlling Hormuz is only valuable with a security arc Pape explains that Iran views Hormuz as a declining asset because Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq are building bypass pipelines. To remain the dominant regional power, Iran needs Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen to threaten those pipelines too — creating an operational 'security resistance belt' from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf.