All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Friedberg, David Sacks
12 Jun 20266 min read37m
TL;DR
Four investors pitch their top trades live: MGM Resorts as a hidden Asian casino play with Barry Diller buying control, Talon Energy as a nuclear and gas power producer trading at a steep discount to replacement cost, and Actis Oncology as an early-stage radiopharmaceutical platform backed by Eli Lilly. The central thread is that durable hard assets — casinos, power plants, targeted cancer drugs — are being mispriced by markets focused on near-term visibility.
Key Moments
Aaron (Serreta Capital)
“Rarely have I ever seen a company in 6 years buy half their float back. So you have Barry Diller who's the legend aggressively buying the stock and it's also now 80% of his NAV.”
Explaining why MGM's combination of corporate buybacks and Barry Diller's aggressive accumulation makes it a compelling long even before the takeover bid.
“Japan actually has a reasonably large gambling market. They have pachinko parlors and they have horses. That's about a $40 billion market. If you look at the market in Macau, that's $30 billion. And if you look at Vegas, it's only $10 billion.”
Quantifying why the Osaka casino license is a transformative hidden asset — Japan's gambling market is larger than both Macau and Vegas.
“We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years. AI demand just turbocharges. That's all it does. And it creates shortages.”
Reframing the power thesis — the structural supply-demand imbalance in electricity exists independent of AI, making the investment case more durable.
“Today in the stock market, as a good speculation, you could purchase this company at a $25 billion enterprise value. the replacement cost is 45 billion. And because they've got debt, it means that the equity value uh just to get to replacement cost uh is more than a double uh from where it's trading today.”
Laying out the core valuation argument for Talon Energy using Sam Zell's replacement-cost framework.
Concluding the Actis Oncology pitch by highlighting that radioisotopes are off-limits to Chinese generics manufacturers, creating a structural competitive barrier rare in biotech.
All-In is a weekly podcast hosted by four close friends and investors: Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Friedberg, and David Sacks. The show covers business, technology, politics, and markets with candid debate and strong opinions. This special episode features a live best ideas pitch competition modeled after the late Ira Sohn Foundation's investor conference.
Takeaways
1
Talon Energy trades at half replacement cost Talon's 2GW nuclear + 6GW natural gas portfolio has an enterprise value of $25B against a replacement cost of $45B, meaning the equity is a 2x just to reach replacement cost — before any AI or power price upside. At $50/share of annual free cash flow on a high-$300 stock, it also trades at roughly 7x FCF versus a peer multiple of ~15x.
2
MGM is an Asian casino play, not Vegas MGM holds the only Western license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan, opening in 2030. Japan's gambling market is $40B vs. Macau's $30B and Vegas's $10B, and Osaka is geographically closer to Shanghai and Beijing than either Macau or Singapore. The market is ignoring this asset — historically, investors only start pricing in new casino openings about 3 years before launch, which is now.
3
Radiopharmaceuticals have a real moat: no Chinese generics Unlike virtually all other drug classes, radiopharmaceuticals require handling radioactive isotopes, which is off-limits to Chinese generic manufacturers. This structural barrier, combined with $15B in recent pharma M&A in the space from Bristol, Novartis, Bayer, and Lilly, makes platform companies like Actis Oncology acquisition targets with durable IP protection.
4
Barry Diller's bid is a floor, not a ceiling, for MGM Diller bid $48/share but owns 26% and has 80% of his NAV in the stock — he is a financial buyer trying to get rich, not a strategic acquirer paying a full control premium. The presenter argues the stock is worth $100-$150 when Japan and Dubai optionality are included, making the bid a signal of value rather than an exit point.
5
Power demand crisis exists without AI — AI just makes it worse The PJM grid operator forecasts 106 GW of new power needed in one US region in 10 years — equivalent to Japan's entire current consumption. The US started this cycle with 2x China's generation capacity and now has one-third. The structural shortfall from decommissioned industrial capacity and two decades of no demand growth means existing power assets are scarce regardless of data center growth.
6
Microsoft restarted Three Mile Island — hyperscalers will pay any price for power Microsoft agreed to pay $100/megawatt hour for 20 years to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor, double the prevailing market price of $50. This illustrates that hyperscalers are so desperate for firm, clean baseload power that they will subsidize restarts of assets the market had written off, dramatically changing the economics for power producers.