All-In

Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot

with Sax, Friedberg, and Chamath
28 Feb 2026 19 min read 1h 47m
TL;DR

AI is triggering a market recalibration from 'when will cash flows disappear' to 'if they'll exist at all'—but real-world evidence shows software engineering demand is exploding, not collapsing. Companies like Jason's are building AI agents that automate routine tasks while redeploying humans to higher-value work, suggesting productivity gains rather than mass obsolescence.

Key Moments
Chamath
“The market is very much in an if mode. Are these cash flows durable at all? Could they fall off a cliff in year three? Is there some AI model that's going to come around the corner and obliterate this business without me knowing it?”
Explaining why software stocks are tanking—investors have shifted from debating timing to questioning business viability itself
▶ 5:41
Sax
“This guy is writing very compelling science fiction, but there's no real analytics behind it to defend it. And yes, this could happen. Here's a prediction market on whether people believe the Catrini report's going to come true. Something like 12% believe the Catrini scenario is going to happen.”
Critiquing the viral Catrini report that claims AI will cause economic collapse, noting it's speculative narrative rather than grounded analysis
▶ 11:17
Friedberg
“Even among startups in Silicon Valley, which I think are probably some of the most attractive places for software engineers to work, there's always been a chronic shortage of them. Then you've got the Fortune 500 companies, non-tech companies, which have always had an even harder time hiring technical talent.”
Arguing that AI won't eliminate software engineers—it will redistribute them across the economy where demand has been chronically undersupplied
▶ 20:31
Jason
“Every single knowledge work job is being automated right now. And you can take it and if you're a business process head, where you know how to like do a business process and you can structure it and write it with an agent, it'll just run it every day, every week.”
Describing how his firm deployed Claude-based agents to automate everything from sales research to podcast editing without eliminating headcount
▶ 25:36
Sax
“It takes way less creativity to think about the potential destruction. And then finally I think you know the other heuristic is just the whole fixed pie fallacy. Most people do tend to think of the economy as a fixed pie.”
Identifying cognitive biases that make doomer AI narratives more psychologically compelling than abundance-based ones
▶ 31:26
About the show
›
All-In is a weekly podcast featuring four successful tech investors and entrepreneurs discussing the latest developments in technology, markets, and business. This episode dives into the AI-driven market correction affecting software stocks, the viral Catrini report predicting economic collapse, and how companies are leveraging AI agents to automate knowledge work.
Takeaways
1
Market repricing reflects uncertainty, not inevitability Software stocks aren't collapsing because AI will destroy them—they're falling because investors are demanding a massive margin of safety. The shift from 'when will disruption happen' to 'if businesses survive' means PE multiples compress even if no tangible threat materializes. This creates opportunity for companies with strong balance sheets willing to weather the uncertainty.
2
Automation creates scarcity where supply-constrained markets exist Jason's live example proves the abundance thesis: his firm automated routine work but didn't fire people because the real bottleneck is skilled labor availability. Software engineering has chronic undersupply across the economy—making engineers 10x more productive doesn't eliminate jobs; it redistributes them to businesses that couldn't previously afford technical talent.
3
Non-developers now own the AI productivity layer Jason's breakthrough: knowledge workers themselves—not engineers—are building AI agents using Claude to automate business processes. This bypasses the traditional software vendor layer entirely, explaining why SaaS companies face margin pressure. The value shifts from pre-built tools to the ability to compose and deploy agents against proprietary workflows.